The State of the Art 2015: A Literature Review of Social Media Intelligence Capabilities for Counter-Terrorism

Project Title

Review of social-media based approaches to research relevant to counter-terrorism: what are the capabilities and limits, and what are the implications of their use in a government context?

Lead / Author

Jamie Bartlett and Louis Reynolds, Demos

Relevant Dates

Published in September 2015.

Description

This review examines how information and insight can be drawn from open social media sources to help maintain public safety, especially in addressing terrorism and violent extremism. The study provides an update to the original 2013 ‘State of the Art’ report by Demos, with new material intended to capture the significant changes in social media since the first publication, including how it is used by terrorist groups, especially the Islamic State (IS), along with the evolving techniques to analyze and counter such activities.

The overall aim is to understand how social media-based research can and cannot contribute to countering terrorism in ways that are publicly supported and effective. The paper notes the ongoing absence of a coherent research community, with limited connection across studies in different disciplines – from computer science to ethnography to advertising – and aims to address this problem by drawing together the ‘state of the art’ research techniques from across such fields to examine the capabilities they provide, the possible insights they offer as well as the barriers to understanding, and the ethical and legal questions that arise. In the course of producing the 2013 and 2015 reports, the researchers reviewed close to 250 studies, and examined statistics related to social media usage as well as public opinion polling on issues such as attitudes about surveillance.

Select Findings

The authors emphasize that while widespread use of the internet by extremist and terrorist groups is not new – for activities including financing, operational communication and propaganda – usage is changing rapidly in response to technological change, and to how social media platforms are used and policed. More specifically, while in the past propaganda was largely controlled by core movement members, the report underscores the proliferation of extremist online content owing to the participation by individuals around the world. The authors argue for caution, however, in drawing conclusions about the impact of such widely available propaganda, and about the nature of online communities themselves.

On the one hand, they note that the availability of extremist material increases the audience of potential recruits; that repeated exposure may reduce viewers’ sensitivity to violence; that online social networks can create ‘echo chambers’ where likeminded participants drive each other to more extreme ideas; and that social media platforms facilitate contact by recruiters, and provide ready channels for them to inform and guide. In response, social media firms and governments have more actively worked to filter, police, and/or take down hateful/extremist content and the accounts used to distribute such material.

On the other hand, the review argues that despite the significant portion of cases of terrorism in recent years involving some amount of social media usage, often the actual influence in motivating action, relative to other factors, is both unclear and hard to determine. Moreover, even to the extent that IS efforts to recruit through social media-based propaganda are effective, the authors highlight research about the limits to take-downs as a response. They find evidence of a complex ‘Swarmcast’ network of IS members and supporters across multiple platforms, whereby participants maintain a constant social media presence, and quickly respond to change accounts and redistribute censored content.

Further, the authors speculate that take-downs may have the unintended effect of energizing online social networks, such as in how IS supporters are prompted to remain vigilant. At the same time, the study notes research suggesting that account suspension can divert effort and limit audience reach, and therefore that targeted take-downs may be effective when used at specific moments, including to measure impact on an online community.

In context of the resilience of IS social media networks, the authors note the growing focus on ‘counter-speech’ as another way of challenging the authors and distributors of violent extremist content. Counter-speech can range for ‘upstream’ efforts targeted at general populations, such as developing audiences’ abilities to critically assess online content; to ‘downstream’ efforts that aim to reach high-risk individuals, showing initial interest in or adhering to extremist ideology. While the authors note that evidence about what works in counter-speech is limited, albeit growing, they note advantages including how organic, grassroots approaches are more rapid, flexible and responsive than large-scale campaigns.

Further Information

The State of the Art 2015: A Literature Review of Social Media Intelligence Capabilities for Counter-Terrorism

Related Initiatives

Benjamin Ducol et al.,“ Assessment of the state of knowledge: between research on social psychology of the Internet and violent extremism,” TSAS, 2016.

Rachel Briggs and Sebastien Feve, “Review of Programs to Counter Narratives of Violent Extremism: What Works and What are the Implications for Government?,” Institute for Strategic Dialogue, 2013.

The SecDev Foundation, “Preventing Violent Extremism: A Research Portal,” 2017.

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