Tyler's Story

Acronyms

ADHD
Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder
ER
Emergency Room
IEP
Individual Education Plan
ICPM
Integrated Correctional Program Model
MST
Multisystemic Therapy
SNAP®
Stop Now And Plan
YIP
Youth Inclusion Program

Foreword

In 2023, a total of 36,397 young people aged 12 to 17 were accused of violating the Criminal Code of Canada under the Youth Criminal Justice Act. This means that approximately 1,388.2 youth per 100,000 youth population, or 1.4% of the Canadian youth population, engaged in delinquent behaviour.

Statistics Canada, 2024c

Most young people eventually outgrow delinquent behaviours and go on to become contributing members of society (Bonta and Andrews, 2024). Such individuals have been termed "adolescent-limited" justice-involved persons (Moffitt, 1993; Bushway, 2013). However, a small portion of the youth population continues to commit crimes into adulthood (Bonta and Andrews, 2024). These individuals are referred to as long-term or "life-course-persistent" justice-involved individuals (Bushway, 2013; Moffitt, 1993).

No single factor explains why youth become persistently justice involved. However, an understanding of the range of factors that put youth at risk of criminal behaviourFootnote 1 is important for the development of comprehensive and effective strategies to reduce crime; to enhance public safety; and to improve outcomes of those at-risk of justice involvement.Footnote 2

In this report, the common experiences of justice-involved youth, and the costs associated with their experiences, are illustrated through the fictional character of Tyler. Tyler's story illustrates how an overwhelming collection of risk factors, along with too few protective factors, can steer a young person down a pathway of persistent criminal behaviour. His story illustrates the potential value of early crime prevention interventions by presenting an analysis of the economic impacts of crime and cost saving opportunities.

Methodology notes

This report is an updated version of the original 2016 publication, titled Tyler's Troubled Life. It integrates new data and insights observed since the original publication, reflecting a more current understanding of the risk factors impacting youth and the costs of crime in Canada. It also introduces a cost-benefit analysis to examine the potential cost-savings of three crime prevention programs.

Risk and protective factors

Risk factors are negative influences in the lives of individuals or their community that can increase one's likelihood of criminal behaviour (Public Safety Canada, 2015). The risk factors identified in the earlier years of Tyler's story are based on the Integrated Cognitive Antisocial Potential (ICAP) Theory, which showcases how family background, social environment, and individual-level factors may lead to Tyler's later criminal behaviours (Farrington, 2019).

Early-life risk factors include:

Situational risk factors include:

Tyler's criminal behaviour began in his mid-teen years. The risk factors identified during this period and beyond align with the "Central Eight" model, which highlights eight broad risk factors that are most strongly associated with recurring criminal behaviour. (Andrews et al., 1990; Andrews et al. 2006; Bonta and Andrews, 2024).

The Central Eight risk factors are:

Protective factors, by contrast, are positive influences or attributes that can reduce the likelihood of criminal behaviour (or continued criminal behaviour) by counterbalancing and reducing a person's overall level of risk (Jones et al., 2016).

This report acknowledges the critical importance of protective factors in understanding and reducing the risk of criminal behaviour among youth. This report does not identify the protective factors in Tyler's life, however, because the primary focus of Tyler's Story is to illustrate the overwhelming burden of many risk factors in a single life, and the associated costs. As such, the focus is on risk factors by design.

Please visit the Methodological Companion for further detail on the approach to risk factors in Tyler's Story.

Costing calculus

Understanding the economic impacts of crime allows researchers to evaluate the cost-benefit ratios of crime prevention programs; it also supports policymakers in making informed decisions about resource allocation.

The cost estimates considered in Tyler's story only include the tangible (direct) costs of crime, such as criminal justice system costs (for example, costs of delivering police services, court services, prosecution services, legal aid, and correctional services), social services and medical costs (for example, operating costs of social services, foster care, special education, psychological services, and health care). Although intangible (indirect) costs are an important component of the actual costs of crime, estimating these costs (for example, those caused by pain and suffering) is challenging due to their subjective nature, measurement difficulties, data limitations, and complex interactions with other factors. For this reason, intangible costs were not included in the estimates. All figures are, at best, an underestimation of the true costs of crime to government and society.

The costing figures obtained reflect comprehensive research into the most representative and up-to-date costs of each element of Tyler's story. When a 2024 cost could not be found, the 2025 cost was estimated using inflation estimates from the Consumer Price Index (Statistics Canada, 2025e).

Using the participant cost for three interventions - Stop Now And Plan (SNAP®)Footnote 3, the Youth Inclusion Program (YIP), and multisystemic therapy (MST) - this report also calculated cost savings and a cost-benefit ratio if Tyler had had access to effective crime prevention programs at critical points in his life.

The total costs for each of Tyler's life periods, or milestones, are noted at the end of each milestone, along with a detailed breakdown. If a cost appears multiple times within a milestone, it is listed accordingly.

For a full breakdown of the key assumptions, techniques, analyses, and limitations for costing in Tyler's Story, please visit the Methodological Companion.

Meet Tyler

TylerFootnote 4, a fictional teenager, faced a challenging childhood marked by a turbulent family life. As he navigates a path that leads to persistent crime, his story delves into the common risk factors affecting youth who encounter the Canadian criminal justice system. It illustrates where targeted programs might divert youths from a life of crime by addressing and mitigating these risk factors.

Tyler's story also identifies the tangible financial costs of crime, including expenses related to criminal justice, health care, and social services. By understanding the economic impacts of crime, it is possible to see the potential cost-savings of crime prevention programs that might have prevented Tyler from committing crimes.

This is Tyler's story

The following story is fictional and does not depict any real persons or events.

Age 0 to 2 years

Tyler's mother became pregnant in in her early twenties while she was still living at home with her parents and studying at a nearby college. She wanted to keep the baby, but was afraid of her parents' disapproval. She moved in with the baby's father and began working as a full-time server at a local bar to support her family. Tyler's father was unemployed, and had a long history of property crimes. He was known in the neighbourhood for moonlighting in the illicit economy, selling stolen electronics, like laptops, TVs, and cell phones.

It was not long before Tyler's mother had their baby. Tyler's parents struggled with financial instability, and the stress often led to shouting, physical, and psychological violence in the home. Because of these challenges, Child and Family Services began investigating Tyler's homelife after the police were called by a neighbour to investigate suspicious activity at his house.

On one particular evening when the police arrived, a large quantity of stolen electronics was discovered in the home. The police arrested Tyler's father for possession of stolen property. He was sentenced to three years in a correctional facility. As a result, Tyler's mother was left to support their infant son on her own. She had a new home-based, part-time data entry job so she did not need childcare. However, she could not afford to rent the house alone on what she earned with her part-time job. So, she and Tyler moved to a more affordable apartment in a lower income neighbourhood.

Following the incarceration of Tyler's father, Child and Family Services began their sustained involvement with Tyler's family. Concerned about Tyler's psychological and physical safety in the wake of violence in the home, they conducted unscheduled home visits once a month over the next year to montior his wellbeing.

Risk Factors (ICAP Theory)

Long-term:
  • Tyler's father's criminal record and past incarceration (for example, property crimes)
  • Exposure to violence in the home (for example, violent conflicts between parents)
  • Family disruption/instability (for example, inconsistent caregiving, contact with child protection services)
  • Financial instability (for example, Tyler's parents struggled to pay their bills)

CostsFootnote 5

Police Call for Service ($176)
Child and Family Services Investigation ($7,809)
Child Services Home Visits (1 year: $57,656)
Period Total: $65,641

Age 3 to 5 years

The absence of Tyler's father and the financial stress experienced by his mother meant that Tyler's sense of security was disrupted, as were his primary adult relationships with his father away and his mother working. Without consistent and supportive adults to help him self-regulate, Tyler began displaying an enduring pattern of hostile and aggressive behaviour towards others by the time he was three years old. He had no friends at daycare because he was physically violent towards other children. He would hit and bite them when he wanted a toy they played with or would refuse to let him participate in their games. He also had a loud and hostile demeanour that made other children afraid of him, which he expressed through frequent temper outbursts and a persistent difficulty in "calming down" to a neutral state. For this reason, Tyler was not able to form any close friendships.

Following complaints from other parents, the staff eventually asked Tyler's mother to remove him from the daycare. As a result, Tyler had to stay with a neighbour while his mother was at work. This neighbour would often leave him unsupervised. This marked yet another point in Tyler's life where an adult role model (his daycare provider) gave up on him.

When Tyler's father finished serving his sentence, he returned to live with Tyler and his mother in their apartment, shortly before Tyler's fourth birthday. Because Tyler was no longer allowed to go to daycare, he stayed at home with his father while his mother went to work, this time as a cashier at a local pharmacy.

Tyler's father spent his days watching TV and ignored Tyler. Tyler often went hours without food. After a few weeks and in an effort to get his father's attention, Tyler began acting out in his mother's absence, breaking his toys and other items around the house. Tyler's father rarely even noticed the behaviour unless it interrupted his TV shows, at which point he would become emotionally and physically abusive, yelling and hitting Tyler repeatedly.

When Tyler was 5 years old, he broke the TV remote. His father became furious, throwing him against the wall and causing his arm to break. Tyler was still crying when his mother came home. After seeing him in pain, she took him to the emergency room (ER), but would not explain to the doctor what had happened to her son. The ER doctor called Child and Family Services to report his suspicion of child abuse.

Child and Family Services investigated Tyler's situation and recommended that Tyler be removed from his parents' care due to physical and psychological abuse and neglect. When Tyler's parents refused to surrender Tyler to Child and Family Services, the case ended up in Civil Family Court. A Family Court judge determined that Tyler was not safe with his parents. Tyler was immediately apprehended by Child and Family Services. Tyler was 5 years old when he was temporarily placed in foster care for eight months.

Risk Factors (ICAP Theory)

Long-term:
  • High level of early aggression (such as hitting and biting peers)
  • Trait anger (for example, loud, and hostile demeanor, violent temper, low tolerance to frustration)Footnote 6
  • Neglectful and abusive parenting (for example, going without food, being yelled at, being hit)
  • Family disruption/instability (for instance, inconsistent parental attachment, violence in the home, living in foster care)
  • Difficulty cultivating and maintaining social attachments (for example, alienating himself at school by his aggressive behaviour and trait anger)
  • Continued financial instability
Short-term:
  • Lack of supervision (for example, left unsupervised by a neighbour; neglected by his father)

Costs

Emergency Room Visit ($1,083)
Child Services Investigation ($7,809)
Child Custody Hearing (for a duration of five days; $72,790)
Foster Care ($1,531 per month for children under the age of 11; $12,245 in total for eight months)
Period Total: $93,927

Age 6 to 10 years

With an organizational focus on keeping familes together where possible, Child and Family Services worked with Tyler's parents to strengthen their capacity to safely parent Tyler and to address the issues that led to Tyler being apprehended. Over the next eight months, his parents individually and as a couple, participated in parenting classes, anger management courses, and mental health counselling. Tyler's mother was more dedicated to the course work than his father was. In that time, Tyler stayed with his foster family and had supervised visits with his parents twice a week. Oftentimes, Tyler's mother would show up for the visits alone.

The foster placement meant he had to adapt to a new school and new classmates, which was difficult for Tyler. He was angry at the situation in which he found himself, and the world around him. Tyler became more aggressive with his new foster family and peers, both physically and verbally. He often shoved them and screamed obscenities at them.

In school, Tyler also struggled to keep up with his lessons, partly because of the disruptions at home and having to adjust to a new school, teacher, and classmates. His first grade teacher recognized that Tyler was not keeping up in school, and suggested that his foster parents take him to see a psychologist for a psychoeducational assessment. Tyler was diagnosed with a learning disability and Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) at the age of seven.

Child and Family Services saw that Tyler missed his parents and that his separation from them was having a negative impact. When they felt that Tyler's parents had improved their parenting skills through their course work and were able to offer a safe home enviroment for their son, Child and Family Services returned Tyler to his parents' care. In the years that followed, Tyler's family would continue to undergo unscheduled home visits, conducted by Child and Family Services.Footnote 7

Tyler's mother worked with his teachers to develop an Individual Education Plan (IEP) for Tyler to promote his success at school. During that time, Tyler began to work with an educational assistant every morning for one-on-one learning support. Tyler's mother also tried to help him with his homework at night.

Although Tyler's father continued to live in the family home, he was emotionally absent for much of Tyler's childhood. Despite the support from his mother, Tyler continued to have difficulty making friends in his neighbourhood and at school. He began to experience more problems with his mood, which were associated with frequent episodes of hyperactivity, impulsivity, and aggressive behaviour at home and at school.

Tyler was teased constantly at school because of his learning disability and ADHD, and often reacted violently. He became repeatedly involved in physical fights and had regular visits to the principal's office. After one schoolyard fight, Tyler was suspended by the principal. Tyler refused to take responsibility for the fight by saying that the other boy "deserved what he got."

Tyler may have benefitted from a targeted, early crime prevention-based intervention program like Stop Now And Plan(SNAP®) at this point in his life. SNAP® teaches children how to regulate angry feelings and control impulsive and aggressive behaviours. It does this by having them stop and think about alternative ways of reacting to a situation.

Risk Factors (ICAP Theory)

Long-term:
  • Pattern of aggressive behaviour (for example, physical, and verbal aggression with foster family, getting into schoolyard fight)
  • Trait anger (for example, violent temper)
  • Low school achievement (for example, struggling to keep up in school, impact of learning disability and ADHD, incurring suspensions)
  • Difficulty cultivating and maintaining social attachments (for example, getting into fights with peers at school)
  • Family disruption/instability (for example, involvement with foster care, continued unscheduled home visits)
  • Neglectful parenting (for example, his father's emotional neglect)
  • Continued financial instability
Short-term:
  • Lack of supervision (for example, parental neglect, no positive extra-curricular activities)
  • Low empathy (for example, said the boy he fought "deserved what he got")
  • Impulsivity

Costs

Parenting Classes ($3,198)
Supervised Access (twice per week for 8 weeks: $480)
Child Services Home Visits/Ongoing Casework (2 years: $115,312)
Psychoeducational Assessment ($4,497)
Individual Education Plan (for 3 years: $18,567)
Period Total: $142,054

Potential cost saving opportunity

If Tyler could have participated in an intervention geared towards regulating his emotions at this time, such as the Stop Now And Plan (SNAP®) program, significant cost reduction could have ensued.

Every $1 spent on SNAP® had the potential to return $62Footnote 8 over Tyler's lifetime. This means that the earlier Tyler benefited from an intervention, the greater the return if his criminal activity declined.

The story continues as if Tyler did not receive any program intervention at this point.

Age 11 to 14 years

As Tyler entered adolescence in the seventh grade, he continued to experience challenges. Tyler soon found himself drawn to a group of older boys who engaged in petty crimes. Known as the "troublemakers" in the neighbourhood, they filled a void in Tyler's life left by his emotionally absent father. He did not have any extracurricular leisure activities to occupy his free time so Tyler had no difficulty finding opportunities to engage in mischief with the boys.

Tyler's friend group stole from their parents, the local convenience stores, and vandalized school property. Once they dared Tyler to steal a bike from the high school next door and ride it around the neighbourhood. The thrill of these activities and the sense of belonging made it difficult for Tyler to resist. Tyler completed the challenge and officially became "one of the guys."

Tyler hung out with his friends in the park every day after school and on weekends. The boys would smoke cigarettes they had stolen from their parents. Tyler started doing the same thing in order to 'fit-in.' On a number of occasions, Tyler's mother confronted him about the missing cigarettes, but Tyler lied to her and said he knew nothing about it.

In the ninth grade, Tyler and his friends began experimenting with alcohol. They began stealing alcohol from their parents' liquor cabinets and bringing it to a local park, and would start 'binging' on alcohol on the weekend; often drinking until they would 'pass out.'Footnote 9 They also began experimenting with cannabis.

When they weren't drinking or smoking cannabis, Tyler and his friends began breaking into houses in the neighbourhood and stealing items, including jewellery and TVs. Soon after, their criminal activities escalated, and the boys began breaking into cars and stealing high value auto parts. Before Tyler's fifteenth birthday, a neighbour reported to the police that he witnessed Tyler stealing parts from a car across the street. The police apprehended Tyler and two of his friends, who were then charged with theft under $5,000 related to the stolen car parts, and property damage. They were required to report to youth court. Since this was Tyler's first recorded offence, the youth court judge ordered Tyler to provide a written apology to the victims and pay restitution for the damages he caused and the property he stole.

Tyler may have benefitted from a targeted, crime prevention-based intervention program such as the Youth Inclusion Program (YIP) at this point in his life. YIP creates a safe place where youth can learn new skills, take part in activities, and get help with schoolwork. Youth also benefit from interactions with positive role models who can help guide young people through tough times and provide a consistent relationship when their home life gets tough.

Tyler did not comply with the order to pay the restitution nor did he follow the terms for repayment because he did not have the ability to repay, unless he stole again as he was still too young to get a job. One of the victims reported Tyler's 'refusal' to pay the restitution to the court and Tyler was brought before a youth court judge a second time for not complying with the order. This time, Tyler was sentenced to 90 days probation, including the completion of 50 hours of community service.

The lack of alternate activities or non-criminal opportunities for financial stability, along with too few positive role models and support systems, made it difficult for Tyler to break away from his peers. This sentence therefore marked the beginning of Tyler's chronic involvement with the justice system.

Risk Factors (ICAP Theory)

Long-term:
  • Association with delinquent peers / peers who engage in substance use
  • Family disruption/instability (for example, low attachment to parental figures)
  • Continued aggression
  • Community violence/lack of neighborhood safety
Short-term:
  • Peer pressure (for example, stealing to "fit-in," completed challenges to become "one of the guys")
  • Early substance use (for example, cigarettes, alcohol, cannabis, and other drugs)
  • Lack of supervision (for example, no extracurricular leisure activities to occupy his free time)
  • Impulsivity (for example, engaging in risky dares)

Risk factors (Central Eight)

Antisocial history: Onset of criminal behaviour

Criminal charges (for example, theft under $5000, property damage)
Sentence (for example, written apology, paying restitution)
Violation of probation terms (for example, not following restitution terms)
Additional sentence (for example, 90-day probation and 50 hours of community service)

Costs

Individual Education Plan (for 4 years: $24,757)
Police Call for Service ($176)
Arrest of a Juvenile ($677)
Youth Court Appearance ($1,651)
Police Attendance at Court ($443)
Theft Under $5,000 ($1,542)
Damage to Property ($3,470)
Youth Court Appearance ($1,651)
Police Attendance at Court ($443)
Probation Supervision (90 Days: $2,089)
Community Service Supervision (50 Hours: $715)
Period Total: $37,614

Potential cost saving opportunity

Had Tyler participated in an intervention helping him learn new skills and succeed in school at this point in his life, important cost savings could have ensued.

For example, if he had access to the Youth Inclusion Program (YIP), every $1 spent on YIP had the potential to yield a return of $118Footnote 10 over Tyler's lifetime.

This means that if Tyler had benefited from this intervention, a significant cost savings could have been realized because his criminal activity could have stopped now.

The story continues as if Tyler did not receive any intervention at this time.

Age 15 to 17 years

At school, Tyler and his friends often skipped classes. When they did show up, they were loud and obnoxious, disrespectful to the teacher, and picked fights with their classmates. Tyler was suspended numerous times. By the time he was 16 years old, Tyler had begun drinking more frequently. This resulted in Tyler coming to school hungover so that he was only able to sit in class with his head down on his desk.

On Fridays and Saturdays, Tyler and his friends continued to drink and smoke cannabis excessively. They used the profits from their stolen car part sales to pay for their alcohol and drugs. When he turned 17, Tyler started frequenting nightclubs with his two older friends, who would sneak him in using a fake ID. There, Tyler started experimenting with cocaine, and within two months, he began regularly using cocaine (three or more times per week).

Just before he turned 18, Tyler dropped out of school. Instead of going to class, he and his friends hung around the neighbourhood park to drink and get high on drugs. Soon afterwards, Tyler consumed particularly large quantities of alcohol, cannabis, and cocaine, and became severely intoxicated when at a house party. Tyler became frustrated when confronted by another youth who suggested he "take it down a notch" and reduce his substance use. He quickly lost his temper and punched the youth in the face and a fight broke out.

The fight resulted in Tyler hitting the other youth in the back of the head until the youth lost conciousness. When someone at the party called for an ambulance, Tyler and his friends tried to flee the scene. However, when the police arrived with the ambulance, the partygoers who witnessed the fight were able to provide the police with a description of Tyler and his friends as the "ring leaders." Tyler didn't get far before he was picked up by the police and charged with assault.

Tyler appeared in youth court the next morning and pled not-guilty to the assault charge, claiming he had no memory of the fight. He also suggested that the other youths at the party were trying to frame him. The judge did not believe Tyler's story and sentenced him to six months probation for the assault under the Youth Criminal Justice Act, including a condition to abide by the curfew set by his parents.

Immediately after Tyler returned home, he got into an argument with his mother about his new curfew. He became furious at her enforcement of the curfew and pushed her so hard that she fell on the kitchen floor. Out of fear for their safety, Tyler's father called the police and Tyler was arrested for a second assault. This time, Tyler was sentenced to four months in a secure youth custody facility, with two months of community supervision. Tyler was supervised by a probation officer for the remainder of his sentence.Footnote 11

Tyler may have benefitted from a targeted, crime prevention-based program that targets youth already involved in the juvenile justice system. Programs like Multisystemic Therapy (MST)Footnote 12 are designed for those at risk of being imprisoned, which could have been helpful at this point in his life. MST is a family- and community-based intervention which addresses antisocial behaviour and focuses on eliminating the risk factors that cause the criminal behaviour.

During his time in custody, Tyler made friends with a few of the other youths in the facility. Most of the youths were also charged with property offences, drug offences, and assaults, and had similar life experiences to Tyler. He became particularly close friends with an experienced drug dealer while in the facility who told Tyler about the money he was making dealing cocaine. Tyler knew that it would be difficult to find a job that would pay as well as dealing drugs and so he started to wonder what dealing might be like.

When the two youths were released from the youth custody facility, Tyler became his friend's "business partner." They found an apartment together and the two supplied cocaine to their neighbourhood, using the proceeds to pay for their bills and for their own substance use.

Risk Factors (Central Eight)

Antisocial history

Continued criminal behaviour (for example, assaulting peer at a house party)
Criminal charges (for example, assault)
Sentence (for example, six months probation and a curfew condition)
Violation of probation terms (for example, breaking curfew)
Continued criminal behaviour (for example, assaulting mother)
Criminal charges (for example, second assault charge)
Sentence (for example, six months in a youth custody facility)
Continued criminal behaviour (for example, drug dealing to the neighbourhood)

Attitudes/Cognitions

Lying and deflecting blame (for example, claiming he had no recollection of the fight and was "framed")
Justifying criminal behaviour (for example, returning to drug dealing to make money)

Personality

Trait anger (for example violent temper and low frustration tolerance)
Impulsivity (for example, managing stress by fleeing the scene of a crime)

Associates/Peers

Involvement with antisocial peers (for example, encouraging use of a fake ID, substance use, fighting)
Involvement with criminal peers (for example, became close friends with a drug dealer while in custody)
Living and working with criminal peers (for example, drug dealing)
Lack of re-integration support post-custody (for example, no positive, pro-social associations/peers)

Education/Employment

Low levels of performance (for example, coming to school hungover and sleeping through class)
Truancy and suspensions (for example, skipping class, many suspensions)
Dropping out of high school (for example, dropped out at age 17)

Substance use

Continued substance use (for example, alcohol, cannabis, and cocaine)

Costs

Individual Education Plan (3 years: $18,567)
Police Call for Service ($176)
Social Assistance ($766 per month; from age 17 to 30: $36,759)
Arrest of a Juvenile ($677)
Youth Court Appearance ($1,651)
Police Attendance at Court ($443)
Probation Supervision (180 days: $4,178)
Assault ($5,718)
Police Call for Service ($176)
Arrest of a Juvenile ($677)
Youth Court Appearance ($1,651)
Police Attendance at Court ($443)
Youth Custody Facility (120 days: $30,374)
Probation Supervision (60 days: $1,393)
Assault ($5,718)
Police Attendance at Court ($443)
Period Total: $109,044

Potential cost saving opportunity

Tyler could have also benefitted from Multisystemic Therapy (MST), a program designed to address a young person's risk of becoming further involved in the criminal justice system. MST targets youth who are already involved in the juvenile justice system and are at risk of being imprisoned.

Every $1 spent on MST had the potential to yield a return of $38Footnote 13 over Tyler's lifetime. This means that had he benefited from MST, while later in his life, there was still an opportunity to positively affect his quality of life and save money.

The narrative, however, proceeds as if Tyler did not receive MST or did not respond favourably to it.

Age 18 years plus

Tyler had only been working with his "business partner" for a few months when their apartment was raided by the police. Both young adults were arrested for possession and intent to traffic a controlled substance.

By this point, Tyler had been arrested and charged on five separate occasions. However, this time was different; he was taken to adult court to face drug charges. He received an 18-month sentence for possession with intent to traffic and was sent to an adult facility to serve his time. This was the first time that Tyler would be sent to an adult correctional facility. Tyler was granted parole after a six month period and then supervised by a probation officer for the remaining year of his sentence.Footnote 14

This period of incarceration exposed Tyler to more hardened offenders which further entrenched him in a persistant life of crime. Upon his release, Tyler struggled to reintegrate into society. The stigma of his criminal record made it hard to find employment, and he felt increasingly isolated.

Tyler was arrested again in his early twenties for common assault and another drug possession charge and was sentenced to two years less a day in provincial custody. Seven months into his sentence, Tyler often participated in inmate activities to pass the time. During a routine game of basketball, Tyler became enraged over a hard foul and assaulted a fellow inmate, causing serious injury. He was charged with aggravated assault causing bodily harm. For his actions, a year was added to Tyler's sentence to be served consecutively. Four months into his consecutive sentence, Tyler was granted parole. He was supervised by a probation officer for the remainder of his sentence.Footnote 15

Tyler returned to his old neighbourhood upon his release and met up with old acquaintances. He continued dealing drugs and stealing to make money. Often, Tyler would move in with a woman he just met if he needed a place to stay. This was the case with one particular girlfriend.

A few months into their relationship, his girlfriend found out she was pregnant. She insisted that Tyler give up dealing drugs and find a stable job to contribute to supporting their growing family. It was difficult for Tyler to extricate himself from his old business relationships. The way he made money became a source of stress between Tyler and his girlfriend. As her due date grew closer, the two fought more frequently.

Tyler lost his temper one night during a heated argument. He attacked his girlfriend with a knife and threatened to kill her. A neighbour heard her screaming and called the police. Tyler was arrested and charged with aggravated assault, assault causing bodily harm, assault with a weapon, and uttering threats.

Tyler was found guilty of all charges. He was sentenced to a total of five years in a federal correctional facility and ordered to participate in the Integrated Correctional Program Model (ICPM), a program that targets multiple common drivers of criminal conduct including substance misuse, crime for gain, and spousal/family violence. Tyler was granted parole after 28 months (2.33 years) following a successful parole hearing, and completed the remainder of his sentence (32 months) in the community while under probationary supervision.Footnote 16

Risk Factors (Central Eight)

Antisocial history

Continued criminal behaviour (for example drug dealing to the neighbourhood)
Criminal charges (for example, possession and intent to traffic a controlled substance)
Sentence (for example, 18-month sentence in adult facility)
Continued criminal behaviour (for example, assault and drug possession)
Criminal charges (for example, charged with assault and drug possession)
Sentence (for example, two years less a day in provincial custody)
Institutional infractions (for example, assaulting a fellow inmate)
Additional sentence (for example, one more year to be served consecutively)
Continued criminal behaviour (for example, returned to drug dealing, stealing, threatening, and attacking his girlfriend)
Criminal charges (for example, aggravated assault, assault causing bodily harm, assault with a weapon, uttering threats)
Sentence (for example, five years in federal custody)

Personality

Trait anger (for example, explosive temper, low frustration tolerance, poor emotional regulation)
Impulsivity (for example, assaulting a fellow inmate)

Attitudes/Cognitions

Justifying criminal behaviour (for example, returning to drug dealing to make money)

Associates/Peers

Association with criminal peers (for example, meeting up with old acquaintances to deal drugs and steal)

Family

Relationship instability (for example, multiple girlfriends)
Relationship conflict (for example, arguing with girlfriend)
Relationship violence (for example, attacking girlfriend)

Education/Employment

Refusal to engage in legitimate workforce (for example, drug dealing)

Substance use

Continued substance use (for example, drugs)

Costs

Police Call for Service ($176)
Arrest of an Adult ($3,206)
Adult Court Appearance ($8,987)
Police Attendance at Court ($443)
Drug Offence/Intent to traffic ($3,862)
Provincial Custody (180 days: $61,306)
Probation Supervision (365 days: $8,472)
Police Call for Service ($176)
Arrest of an Adult ($3,206)
Adult Court Appearance ($8,987)
Police Attendance at Court ($443)
Assault ($5,718)
Drug Offence/Intent to traffic ($3,862)
Provincial Custody (730 days: $248,631)
Adult Court Appearance ($8,987)
Police Attendance at Court ($443)
Assault ($5,718)
Provincial Custody (120 days: $40,871)
Probation Supervision (245 days: $5,686)
Police Call for Service ($176)
Arrest of an Adult ($3,206)
Adult Court Appearance ($8,987)
Police Attendance at Court ($443)
Aggravated Assault ($20,097)
Assault with a Weapon or Assault Causing Bodily Harm ($20,097)
Uttering Threats ($5,087)
Federal Prison (28 months = about 850 days: $380,086)
Probation Supervision (32 months = about 11,520 days: $267,379)
Period Total: $1,124,738

In the end...

Tyler had spent over 10 years in custody by the age of 30, costing the system approximately $1.6 million dollars.Footnote 17 His experience reflects the complex interplay between individual decisions and systemic barriers. Tyler's story highlights how early investments in positive role models, stable environments, and targeted support for at-risk youth can combat the escalation of criminal involvement—and ultimately transform lives. Evidence-based crime prevention and early intervention strategies could have not only changed Tyler's life for the better but also be dramatically more cost-effective, saving anywhere from $1.2 to $1.3 million dollars, depending on the benefits Tyler experienced from participating in the programs. This is because the cost of incarcerating one individual like Tyler far exceeds the investment required for early, proactive support. With the right investments, cycles of criminal involvement can be broken and pathways to better futures can be created.

Intervention program details

Intervention #1: Stop Now And Plan (SNAP®) program for ages 6 to 10 years

Tyler could have benefitted from participating in a program like Stop Now And Plan (SNAP®).

SNAP® is a cognitive-behavioural strategy that teaches children and parents how to regulate angry feelings by having them stop and think about positive alternatives before they react to a situation. Groups of children engage in role-playing exercises and practice strategies to help them stop and think before they act. Additionally, parents attend similar training sessions so that they can help their children practice the new problem-solving strategies at home.

SNAP® is an award-winning evidence-based model that has been subjected to rigorous evaluation and has demonstrated positive treatment outcomes among children under the age of 10 with conduct and related behavioural problems. SNAP® has been shown to help children make better choices and control impulsive and aggressive behaviours that could lead to future contact with the police.

Delinquency, major aggression and minor aggression decrease significantly after participation in SNAP® (Koegl, Farrington, Augimeri, and Day, 2007). The average cost of delivering the program is approximately $20,615 per person (Public Safety Canada, 2022)Footnote 18. Tyler's estimated future criminal costs from age 11 on is $1,271,394, if no intervention were to take place. Therefore, by successfully implementing this intervention at age 10, the potential criminal trajectory costs avoided could be an estimated $1,250,779.

Intervention #1: Calculations of Potential Cost Savings
Tyler's total crimes, all years $ 1,573,016
Minus Tyler's estimated costs before intervention, age 0 to 2 - $ 65,641
Minus Tyler's estimated costs before intervention, age 3 to 5 - $ 93,927
Minus Tyler's estimated costs before intervention, age 6 to 10 - $ 142,054
Tyler's future costs with no intervention, age 11 to 30 = $ 1,271,394
Minus cost of SNAP intervention - $ 20,615
Potential Cost Savings = $ 1,250,779

Risk factors mitigated by SNAP®

Many of the risk factors in Tyler's life are dynamic, meaning they can gradually change over time to either increase or decrease his risk of criminal behaviour (Andrews et al., 2006). The risk factors that could be mitigatedFootnote 19 if Tyler participated in the SNAP® program are:

  • Personality: improvements in aggressive behaviour, anger, impulsivity
  • Attitudes/Cognitions: less positive attitude towards antisocial behaviour
  • Peers/Associates: association with fewer antisocial/criminal peers, improved prosocial skills with peers
  • Family: improved quality of interaction between child and parent(s), increased parental confidence in managing their child's behaviour
  • Leisure/Recreation: participation in structured activities

Other SNAP® programs:

SNAP® Girls

The SNAP® Girls model is the first-ever gender-specific program for girls exhibiting early disruptive behaviour problems at home, school, and in their community. It also supports their families.

SNAP® Youth Justice

SNAP® Youth Justice aims to reduce the risk of further contact with the law and/or gang membership among males between the ages of 12 and 19 who are involved in the youth justice system.

SNAP® Schools

SNAP® Schools (SNAP-S) offers one-day training sessions in communities across Canada where a SNAP affiliate site has been established and is delivering SNAP® Boys and SNAP® Girls programs. A more comprehensive 13-week in-class program based on the SNAP® Model can also be offered.

SNAP® Indigenous Communities

The SNAP® for Indigenous Communities model was developed because of the sharing of knowledge, experience, wisdom, challenges and successes from our Indigenous partners and community advisors. SNAP® is currently being replicated in the Waswanipi and Mistissini communities, Quebec; the Shawanaga and Wasauksing First Nations, Ontario; Prince Albert Métis Women's Association, Saskatchewan; Bigstone Cree Nation, Oski Pasikoniwew Kamik and Alexander First Nations, Kipohtakaw Education Centre, Alberta; and Youth Achievement Centre, Yukon.

Intervention #2: Youth Inclusion Program (YIP) for ages 11 to 14 years

Tyler could have benefitted from participating in the Youth Inclusion Program (YIP).

YIP is a neighbourhood-based program that aims to reduce youth crime and anti-social behaviour by creating a safe place where youth can learn new skills, take part in activities, and get help with their education. The program workers and volunteer mentors function as positive role models who help to change young people's attitudes towards education and crime. The goal of the program is to prevent young people from entering the criminal justice system and/or reduce offending by young people already in the system by intervening at the individual, family, and community levels.

Interventions address the risk factors that brought the youth to the attention of program staff in the first place. The focus of the program differs depending on the specific needs of each participant. Program activities include education and training, the arts, culture and media, mentoring, health and drugs education, motor programs, outreach and detached work, sports, group development, the environment, personal assessment, and family programming (National Crime Prevention Centre, 2008).

The average cost of delivering the program for each participant is approximately $9,519 (Public Safety Canada, 2021)Footnote 20. However, if no intervention is made, Tyler's estimated future criminal costs at age 15 on is $1,233,731. Therefore, by successfully implementing this intervention at age 14, the criminal trajectory costs avoided could be an estimated $1,224,261.

Intervention #2: Calculations of Potential Cost Savings
Tyler's total crimes, all years $ 1,573,016
Minus Tyler's estimated costs before intervention, age 0 to 2 - $ 65,641
Minus Tyler's estimated costs before intervention, age 3 to 5 - $ 93,927
Minus Tyler's estimated costs before intervention, age 6 to 10 - $ 142,054
Minus Tyler's estimated costs before intervention, age 11 to 14 - $ 37,614
Tyler's future costs with no intervention, age 15 to 30 = $ 1,233,780
Minus cost of YIP intervention - $ 9,519
Potential Cost Savings = $ 1,224,261

Risk factors mitigated by YIP

The dynamic risk factors that could be mitigatedFootnote 21 if Tyler participated in the YIP are (Laliberte, 2015; Gagnon and Duncan, 2011):

  • Personality: improvements in behaviour, emotional regulation skills
  • Attitudes/Cognitions: improvements in cognitions and attitudes towards offending
  • Peers/Associates: association with fewer antisocial/criminal peers, increased involvement with positive role models and peers
  • Family: appropriate parenting strategies, increased motivation to improve family relationships, and more positive interactions between parents/guardians and youth
  • Education/Employment: improved attitudes towards school, academic improvement, reduced absenteeism, employable skill acquisition
  • Substance use: increased awareness of substance-use issues

Intervention #3: Multisystemic Therapy (MST) for ages 15 to 17 years

Tyler could have benefitted from Multisystemic Therapy (MST).

The MST model is designed to address a young person's risk of becoming further involved in the criminal justice system. MST targets youth who are already involved in the juvenile justice system and are at risk of being imprisoned. It provides intensive therapy either in the family's home or wherever the family feels most comfortable. MST is a family- and community-based treatment model that addresses antisocial behaviour in juveniles. MST focuses on eliminating risk factors that cause this behaviour, such as:

  • low verbal skills,
  • lack of mentoring,
  • ineffective discipline,
  • parental difficulties,
  • association with deviant peers,
  • poor relationship skills,
  • school dropout,
  • low commitment to education,
  • criminal subculture, and
  • low community support.

The main goals of MST are to:

  • improve parental discipline practices,
  • decrease association with delinquent peers,
  • increase association with prosocial peers,
  • improve school performance, and
  • develop a positive support network for the youth that includes extended family, neighbours, and friends.

During the program's initial sessions, the problems needing attention are identified and the necessary services are coordinated. The intervention is not solely concentrated on the child, particularly if there are other familial or relationship issues present. The specific intervention strategies used are strategic family therapy, structural family therapy, behavioural parent training and cognitive behavioural therapies. The MST program typically consists of 60 hours of treatment over a period of four months. This time, however, may be adjusted to suit the individual needs of the family.

Evaluations of the MST program demonstrate that juvenile offenders who have received treatment experience reductions in long-term rates of arrest between 54% and 75%. Additionally, program participants experience approximately 54% fewer out-of-home placements and have improved family functioning and decreased mental health problems (MST Services, 2024).

The average cost of implementing the MST program is approximately $29,745 per youth (McIntosh, 2015)Footnote 22. However, the estimated cost of Tyler's future criminal involvement from age 18 to 30 is $1,124,737. Therefore, by successfully implementing this intervention at age 17, the potential cost savings could be an estimated $1,094,992.

Intervention #3: Calculations of Potential Cost Savings
Tyler's total crimes, all years $ 1,573,016
Minus Tyler's estimated costs before intervention, age 0 to 2 - $ 65,641
Minus Tyler's estimated costs before intervention, age 3 to 5 - $ 93,927
Minus Tyler's estimated costs before intervention, age 6 to 10 - $ 142,054
Minus Tyler's estimated costs before intervention, age 11 to 14 - $ 37,614
Minus Tyler's estimated costs before intervention, age 15 to 17 - $ 109,044
Tyler's future costs with no intervention, age 18 to 30 = $ 1,124,736
Minus cost of MST intervention - $ 29,745
Potential Cost Savings = $ 1,094,991

Risk factors mitigated by MST

The dynamic risk factors that could be mitigatedFootnote 23 if Tyler participated in MST (National Crime Prevention Centre, 2013; Bjørknes et al., 2024) are:

  • Personality: decreased aggression, improved attention, better frustration tolerance
  • Attitudes/Cognitions: overall reduction in antisocial/pro-criminal attitudes, avoidance or rejection of help, defiance of authorities, and lack of concern for others
  • Peers/Associates: association with fewer antisocial/criminal peers, involvement with prosocial peers
  • Family: improved family cohesion, positive and consistent parenting, and parental monitoring
  • Education/Employment: decreased disruptive classroom/schoolyard behaviour, academic improvement, reduced absenteeism
  • Leisure/Recreation: involvement with prosocial activities
  • Substance use: decreased substance use

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