National Risk Profile

The National Risk Profile is a strategic national disaster risk and capability assessment that uses scientific evidence and stakeholder input to create a forward-looking picture of Canada's disaster risks and capabilities in order to strengthen Canadian communities' resilience to disasters, such as floods, wildfires and earthquakes.

About the National Risk Profile

Overview of the National Risk Profile

The National Risk Profile supports the second priority under the Emergency Management Strategy for Canada: Towards a Resilient 2030, which is to improve understanding of disaster risks in all sectors of society. Public Safety Canada is working in collaboration with provincial and territorial governments, Indigenous leadership and communities, as well as industry experts to evaluate the current level of risk Canadians face and our capacity to respond to those risks.

What does the National Risk Profile evaluate?

The National Risk Profile is being implemented in stages. The first stage focuses primarily on floods, wildfires and earthquakes. In future years, the scope of the National Risk Profile will expand to include a broader range of natural hazards, eventually encompassing all-hazards, including those that are human-induced.

What are the benefits of having a National Risk Profile?

The National Risk Profile will:

How is Risk and Capability Measured?

The National Risk Profile uses two evidence-based methodologies to assess Canada's current level of risk to all-hazards. It informs our collective ability to mitigate their impacts: the All-Hazards Risk Assessment methodology and the Capability-Based Planning methodology.

All-Hazards Risk Assessment Methodology

The All-Hazards Risk Assessment methodology (AHRA) assesses the impact and likelihood of all-hazards that pose threat to Canada. This will help to inform efforts to reduce the vulnerability of people, property, the environment and the economy.

The AHRA methodology involves the following steps:

The risk assessment portion of the National Risk Profile involves the engagement of  emergency management experts and also whole-of society experts from diverse areas, including  Indigenous, private sector, and academic backgrounds. These risk assessments are designed to determine the impacts of hazards and threats to each of the five AHRA impact categories, which are:

The AHRA methodology also includes a "Future Lens" component which takes into account current evidence, while considering risk drivers such as: climate change, population growth, urbanization and continued development in hazard areas. The Future Lens component has been designed to provide insight as to how risk levels are expected to evolve over a 30 year period.

Capability-Based Planning Methodology

Capability-Based Planning is used to identify and measure capabilities that are required to prevent or reduce the impact of hazards on communities before they occur, and to respond and recover from disasters. It can help highlight if gaps exist within the emergency management system, and considers which resources may be more frequently called-upon within a climate-impacted future, by creating a common framework for measuring, coordinating, and mobilizing resources to optimize limited resources and personnel across all jurisdictions.

Capabilities are defined as categories or logical groupings of emergency management functions across the entire EM system and provide the building blocks for effective emergency management practices across all jurisdictions. These groupings include resources, tools and assets, personnel and organizational structures, including policies and procedures.

These capabilities are further assessed to provide a baseline of its capacity and competence and how they can be proactively mobilized to reduce vulnerability and risk.

To support the development of Capability-Based Planning, the National Risk Profile will identify gaps in emergency management capabilities for mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery.

Engagement and Coordination

In the first stage of the National Risk Profile (2021-22), twelve whole-of-society risk assessment sessions were held to better understand our national risks and challenges with respect to floods, wildfires and earthquakes. Participants included experts from across all levels of government, academia, Indigenous organizations, and the private sector, in order to produce a whole-of-society picture of risks facing Canada at the national level. Participants provided perspectives on the level of risk in the five AHRA impact categories, as well as on critical infrastructure, on GBA+ considerations, on the risk of a similar event in 2050 and on the risk during a pandemic. Traditional knowledge and perspectives were also discussed with respect to risks facing Indigenous communities.

Findings and perspectives that were gathered during the whole-of-society representative risk assessments sessions will then be explored through corresponding whole-of-society capability assessments—which seek to identify gaps in understanding risk across Canada.

Resources to help improve understanding of disaster risk in Canada

Contact Us

For more information about the National Risk Profile, email: nrp-pnr@ps-sp.gc.ca.

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