National Risk Profile

The National Risk Profile is a strategic national disaster risk and capability assessment that uses scientific evidence and stakeholder input to create a forward-looking picture of Canada's disaster risks and capabilities in order to strengthen Canadian communities' resilience to disasters, such as floods, wildfires and earthquakes.

About the National Risk Profile

Overview of the National Risk Profile

The National Risk Profile supports the second priority under the Emergency Management Strategy for Canada: Towards a Resilient 2030, which is to improve understanding of disaster risks in all sectors of society. Public Safety Canada is working in collaboration with provincial and territorial governments, Indigenous leadership and communities, as well as industry experts to evaluate the current level of risk Canadians face and our capacity to respond to those risks.

What does the National Risk Profile evaluate?

The National Risk Profile is being implemented in stages. The first stage focuses primarily on floods, wildfires and earthquakes. In future years, the scope of the National Risk Profile will expand to include a broader range of natural hazards, eventually encompassing all-hazards, including those that are human-induced.

What are the benefits of having a National Risk Profile?

The National Risk Profile will:

• Provide a common lexicon and methodologies for the assessment of all-hazards, including climate influenced and natural hazards;
• Improve awareness and understanding of disaster risks through biennial public reports (one report published every two years);
• Enhance information-sharing by promoting a whole-of-society approach to risks and capabilities;
• Generate a national picture and evidence to compare risks across domains; and
• Provide evidence to inform on capabilities to build resilience.

How is Risk and Capability Measured?

The National Risk Profile uses two evidence-based methodologies to assess Canada's current level of risk to all-hazards. It informs our collective ability to mitigate their impacts: the All-Hazards Risk Assessment methodology and the Capability-Based Planning methodology.

All-Hazards Risk Assessment Methodology

The All-Hazards Risk Assessment methodology (AHRA) assesses the impact and likelihood of all-hazards that pose threat to Canada. This will help to inform efforts to reduce the vulnerability of people, property, the environment and the economy.

The AHRA methodology involves the following steps:

• Setting the Context – Threats and hazards that could impact Canada are identified.
• Risk Identification – Risk scenarios are prepared, describing cause and consequence.
• Risk Analysis – Defining the probability and severity of consequences to estimate risk.
• Risk Evaluation – Collectively, these risk estimates represent a picture of "all-hazards" risk.
• Risk Treatment – Identifying and recommending risk control or risk treatment options, particularly through the application of Capability-Based Planning.

The risk assessment portion of the National Risk Profile involves the engagement of  emergency management experts and also whole-of society experts from diverse areas, including  Indigenous, private sector, and academic backgrounds. These risk assessments are designed to determine the impacts of hazards and threats to each of the five AHRA impact categories, which are:

• People, including:
  • both the immediate effects (e.g., numbers of fatalities and injuries, both physical and mental) and the longer-term effects (e.g., chronic disease and mental illness);
• the Economy, including:
  • Direct economic losses, such as damage to infrastructure, residential structures, etc.; and
  • Indirect economic losses, such as temporary and permanent unemployment, production losses, costs of emergency operations, etc.;
• the Environment, including:
  • a wide range of impacts related to greenhouse gas emissions, ecosystems, species, air quality and water quality;
    
• Government, including:
  • the government's ability to govern during and after a disaster, as well as its ability to manage its reputation and influence with stakeholders within Canada and internationally.
• Social Function, including:
  • the impacts of displacement or shelter-in-place on a population;
  • the impacts on social supports and networks during disaster response and recovery; and,
  • the impacts from permanent damage to objects of cultural significance.

The AHRA methodology also includes a "Future Lens" component which takes into account current evidence, while considering risk drivers such as: climate change, population growth, urbanization and continued development in hazard areas. The Future Lens component has been designed to provide insight as to how risk levels are expected to evolve over a 30 year period.

Capability-Based Planning Methodology

Capability-Based Planning is used to identify and measure capabilities that are required to prevent or reduce the impact of hazards on communities before they occur, and to respond and recover from disasters. It can help highlight if gaps exist within the emergency management system, and considers which resources may be more frequently called-upon within a climate-impacted future, by creating a common framework for measuring, coordinating, and mobilizing resources to optimize limited resources and personnel across all jurisdictions.

Capabilities are defined as categories or logical groupings of emergency management functions across the entire EM system and provide the building blocks for effective emergency management practices across all jurisdictions. These groupings include resources, tools and assets, personnel and organizational structures, including policies and procedures.

These capabilities are further assessed to provide a baseline of its capacity and competence and how they can be proactively mobilized to reduce vulnerability and risk.

• A capacity is defined as the level or degree to which a capability can be delivered to meet an expected need.
• A competency is the extent to which a specific skillset or knowledge exists to support the professional delivery of a capability.

To support the development of Capability-Based Planning, the National Risk Profile will identify gaps in emergency management capabilities for mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery.

Engagement and Coordination

In the first stage of the National Risk Profile (2021-22), twelve whole-of-society risk assessment sessions were held to better understand our national risks and challenges with respect to floods, wildfires and earthquakes. Participants included experts from across all levels of government, academia, Indigenous organizations, and the private sector, in order to produce a whole-of-society picture of risks facing Canada at the national level. Participants provided perspectives on the level of risk in the five AHRA impact categories, as well as on critical infrastructure, on GBA+ considerations, on the risk of a similar event in 2050 and on the risk during a pandemic. Traditional knowledge and perspectives were also discussed with respect to risks facing Indigenous communities.

Findings and perspectives that were gathered during the whole-of-society representative risk assessments sessions will then be explored through corresponding whole-of-society capability assessments—which seek to identify gaps in understanding risk across Canada.

Resources to help improve understanding of disaster risk in Canada

• Earthquakes Canada
• Federal Flood Mapping Guidelines Series
• Canadian Disaster Database
• Disaster Mitigation and Adaptation Fund
• Climate change adaptation plans and actions
• Climate Data for a Resilient Canada
• Government Operations Centre (GOC)

Contact Us

For more information about the National Risk Profile, email: nrp-pnr@ps-sp.gc.ca.

Date modified:

2022-01-11