Note
Also published in French under title: L'avenir d'al-Qaïda : résultats d'une étude prospective.
"Published May 2013"--Page [2] of cover.
Issued as part of the Canadian Electronic Library, Documents collection, and Canadian public policy collection.
Summary
"This report contains the results of a research project led by the academic outreach program of the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) to explore the future of the Al-Qaeda phenomenon. It consists of alternative future scenarios developed during a workshop, as well as four original papers written by individual specialists at the request of CSIS. The report is not an analytical document and does not represent any formal assessment or position of CSIS or the Government of Canada"--Page [2] of cover.
Contents
What could Al-Qaeda look like in 2018? -- Al-Qaeda Central and Al-Qaeda in Iraq in 2018. Assumptions ; Capacity ; Change drivers ; Al-Qaeda core and Al-Qaeda in Iraq in 2018 -- Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb in 2018. Influence of transnational networks on AQIM ; Current polarisation and challenges: Aqimland or not? ; AQIM structures and an evaluation of their development ; AQIM and its prospects for regional and inter-regional cooperation ; Towards "sub-jihadisation"? -- Defeat, dispersal and decline: bleak prospects for Al-Qaeda in East Africa in 2018. A brief history of AQEA ; Harakaat Al-Shabaab Al-Mujaahidiin ; Al-Hijra (Muslim Youth Centre) ; Ansaar Muslim Youth Centre (AMYC) ; Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP): a future host for AQEA? -- Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula: profile, presumptions and predictions to 2018. The jihadist milieu and the rise of AQAP ; The role of the tribes ; Future prospects ; Endnotes.