Severe Geomagnetic Storm Expected

Information Note Number: IN03-005
29 October 2003

Purpose

PS is releasing this Information Note to bring attention to an extremely large geomagnetic storm that is expected to reach the Earth at approximately midday on October 29.

Audience

This Information Note is intended primarily for Canada's critical infrastructure owners and operators.

Background

Sunspots are massive dark areas on the surface of the sun that lie on top of hurricanes of electrified gas. When sunspots erupt, they release a coronal mass ejection (CME) at approximately 3.2 million kilometres per hour. Geomagnetic storms occur when the CME impacts the Earth's magnetosphere, disturbing the solar wind and reducing the global magnetic field. While these powerful storms usually trigger auroras, they can also damage energy and communication systems.

Solar Cycles are consecutive groups of geomagnetic storm activity that repeat approximately every 11 years. Currently, we are in Solar Cycle 23 and April 2000 was thought to be the peak of this cycle's activity.

Information

On October 28 at 06:10 EST, the sun released an enormous quantity of particles and gas in a coronal mass ejection (CME) expected to reach Earth midday on October 29. Forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Space Environment Center say the flare was a strong S-3 radiation event and a severe R-4 radio blackout. Space weather scales may be viewed at: www.sec.noaa.gov. The storm is expected to be a G-4 event, with possible periods of G-5 storming. The solar radiation storm is also expected to continue at strong levels for the next few days. A forecast of geomagnetic activity over the next 24 hours is available at: Spaceweather.gc.ca

According to Natural Resources Canada's (NRCan) Dr. David Boteler, due to the size of the eruption and its speed, this disturbance is expected to produce a major magnetic storm when it reaches the Earth. Radiation storms can affect satellites and cause high-frequency communication problems. An R-4 storm can create high-frequency radio blackouts for several hours on the sunlit side of the Earth. However, it is difficult to predict the exact impacts of the current storm due to the wide variety of factors that can affect such an event.

Comment

For more information on geomagnetic storms and their impact on Canadian critical infrastructure, see Public Safety's Web site.

Note to Readers

The Canadian Cyber Incident Response Centre (CCIRC) provides a focal point for Canada's cyber threat and vulnerability warning, analysis and response. CCIRC is responsible for assuring the resilience of national critical infrastructure through monitoring threats and coordinating a federal response to cyber security incidents of national interest. CCIRC operates in conjunction with the Government Operations Centre (GOC) within Public Safety Canada and is a key component of the government's all-hazards approach to emergency management and national security.

For general information, please contact Public Safety Canada's Public Affairs division at:

Telephone: 613-944-4875 or 1-800-830-3118
Fax: 613-998-9589
E-mail: communications@ps-sp.gc.ca